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Baccarat Probabilities

Published on April 11, 2014, in Baccarat Strategy.

Baccarat Probabilities

Baccarat is a game that seems glamorous, but it really is not too complicated to learn. The word means zero in French, and this is what you want to avoid, because if you have zero, then you lose. The basics are that each card is worth whatever its face value is.  Aces are one, and face cards are all worth ten. You add up your cards, and then keep just the last digit. For instance, if you had 8+5 = 13, you would have 3.

The dealer gives everyone two cards. You don’t have a choice on whether to take a third card. If you have 0 to 5, then you have to get a card. If you have 6 or 7, you have to stay. If you have 8 or 9, you get a natural win.

All players have a choice to bet on the player, the banker, or a tie. The odds are really quite good. The house has just a 1.06% advantage when you bet on the banker, and a 1.24% advantage if you bet on the player. Betting on a tie is not such a good bet, since the house then has a 14.36% advantage.

Betting on player vs. banker is almost the same as flipping a coin. A bet on the banker has a very slight advantage, due to the more complex rules that determine when the banker has to take a third card. Their third card depends not only on what the banker is showing, but also what the player has.

Some Baccarat players track the trends, and others have betting systems. While this can make the game more entertaining, the mathematical odds are that betting on the banker each time gives you the best chances of winning. There is no sure system for winning – this is a game of chance. Know the odds, and have fun.

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